شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‏های مؤثر بر آینده وقف در ایران در افق 1414

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction and Objectives: Waqf (endowment), as a prominent social and economic institution in Islamic societies, has always played a significant role in cultural, economic, and social development. This ancient tradition, aimed at serving society and seeking closeness to God (qurb ilā Llāh), has long been the focus of scholars, rulers, and the general public. Despite historical ups and downs, waqf has never been eliminated from the social arena and has remained a stable and effective institution.
However, in the contemporary era, this institution faces extensive challenges and transformations. Rapid technological changes, socio-economic and cultural developments, as well as shifts in public attitudes towards waqf, have made the necessity for review and efficient, forward-looking management of this institution more evident than ever. In this regard, obtaining a clear picture of the probable futures of waqf and identifying the key factors influencing it are of high strategic importance. This research has been conducted with the aim of delineating the future of waqf in Iran, focusing on identifying and analyzing the key drivers (pišrānhā) of change in this field. Awareness of these drivers helps managers and policymakers to face future developments with clearer vision and more informed decisions, and to formulate effective policies for managing and developing this authentic institution.
Research Methodology: This research is “exploratory-analytical” in nature and “applied” in purpose, conducted within the framework of the futures studies approach and utilizing the methods of “trend analysis” (rawandpizhūhī) and “thematic analysis” (taḥlīl-i mażmūn).
The required data were collected through two main paths:

Library and documentary studies: An in-depth review of credible scientific sources, articles, books, reports, and documents related to waqf and futures studies.
Semi-structured interviews: Conducted with 12 experts and specialists in the fields of waqf and futures studies, selected through snowball sampling (namūnihgīrī bih ravish-i gulūlah-ʾi barfī) and continued until theoretical saturation was achieved.

The expert panel consisted of: university professors (30%), senior and middle managers of the Endowment Organization (Sāzmān-i Awqāf) and trustees of endowments (mutawalliyān-i mowqūfāt) (40%), and prominent activists and benefactors in the field of waqf (30%).
For analyzing the collected qualitative data, the thematic analysis method was used in three systematic stages:

Open coding: Data were reviewed line by line and initial codes were extracted.
Axial coding: Similar codes were organized and categorized into main and sub-themes.
Selective coding: By focusing on the nature of the factors, their sphere of influence, and their probable consequences, similar themes converged into broader categories and the final drivers were extracted.

Research Results: Qualitative analysis of data based on trend analysis and thematic analysis led to the identification of 27 influential factors and ultimately the extraction of 6 key drivers shaping the future of the waqf institution in Iran up to the horizon of 1414 (2035). These drivers, as the main propelling forces, delineate the picture of future developments:

Innovation and Attractiveness in Future Endowments (Nūāwarī wa jazābiyyat dar awqāf-i āyandih)

This driver indicates the necessity of transformation in the forms and functions of waqf. Future endowments will move beyond the traditional form (real estate) towards:

Digital waqf (waqf-i dījītāl)
Family waqf (waqf-i khānvādagī)
Endowment banks (bānk-i waqfī)
Endowment of intangible assets (waqf-i dārāyīhā-yi nāmaḥsūs), such as intellectual property rights and brands

The specialization of endowments in the form of issue-oriented projects (ṭarḥhā-yi masʾalih-miḥwar — focusing on education, health, or the environment) and the competitive nature of attracting donors through presenting attractive plans are consequences of this transformation.

Managerial and Cultural Orientations (Jahatgīrīhā-yi mudīriyyatī wa farhangī)

Waqf as a cultural-social phenomenon is influenced by the will of macro-management. Strengthening the advisory and guiding role of the Endowment Organization and developing new incentive tools (beyond tax exemptions) for orienting future endowments is emphasized. Furthermore, the view of waqf as a tool for the redistribution of wealth (tawzīʿ-i mujaddad-i s̱arvat) and the realization of economic justice, albeit within the framework of the concept of charity (iḥsān), will be strengthened.

Diversity in Donors’ Intentions and Motivations (Tanawwuʿ dar niyyāt wa angīzishhā-yi wāqifān)

Influenced by the phenomenon of modern individualism (fardgarāyī-yi mudirn) and the evolution in forms of religiosity, we will witness the diversification of motivations for waqf. In addition to traditional devotional intentions (niyyāt-i ʿibādī-yi sunnatī), humanitarian, environmental, artistic motivations, as well as psychological goals (gaining peace of mind) and social goals (gaining prestige) will emerge more prominently. This entails both the opportunity to expand the range of donors and the threat of the commercialization (tablīghātī shudan) of waqf.

Trend Towards Developmental and Facilitative Management (Garāyish bih mudīriyyat-i tawsiʿihʾī va tasʾhīlgar)

Waqf management is transitioning from mere preservation-oriented approaches (ḥifẓ-miḥwarī) towards development-oriented and facilitative management. This transformation is accompanied by:

Jurisprudential-legal revisions (tajdīdnaẓarhā-yi fiqhī-ḥuqūqī) to accept cash and stock waqf
The development of new models such as micro-endowment funds (sandūqhā-yi waqfī-yi khurd)
The utilization of scientific theories and stakeholder participation

The main challenge is maintaining a balance between economic returns and the devotional nature of waqf, and preventing the weakening of devotional endowments (mowqūfāt-i ʿibādī).

Two-Way Interaction Between Waqf and Technology (Taʿāmul-i dūsūyih-ʾi waqf wa fannāwarī)

A strategic and two-way cooperation is forming between the waqf institution and new technologies. Digital technologies and artificial intelligence will act both as:

Tools for efficient management, promotion of waqf culture, and increased transparency
A new field for waqf investments in knowledge-based companies (shirkathā-yi dānishbunyān) and innovative projects (entrepreneurial waqf — kārāfarīnī-yi waqfī)


Development of Participatory Governance in Waqf (Tawsiʿih-ʾi ḥukmrānī-yi mushārakātī dar waqf)

The popular nature of waqf strengthens the transition towards participatory governance. In this model:

The Endowment Organization (Sāzmān-i Awqāf) transforms from direct executor to a regulatory, supervisory, and coordinating role.
Popular charitable institutions and specialized bodies act as the main executors in the field.

Increased transparency, the formulation of standards, and the development of social oversight (naẓārathā-yi ijtimāʿī) will be key pillars of this transformation.
Discussion and Conclusion: The findings of this research clarify that the desirable and sustainable future of the waqf institution depends on creating a dynamic and intelligent balance (taʿādul-i pūyā wa hūshmandānih) between three interconnected principles:

Preserving the religious authenticity and devotional nature of waqf (ṣiyānat az aṣālat-i sharʿī wa māhiyyat-i ʿibādī-yi waqf)
Responsibly and creatively accepting new forms and mechanisms compatible with contemporary conditions (pazīrish-i masʾūlānah wa khallāqānah-ʾi ashkāl wa sāzūkārhā-yi nawīn mutābiq bā sharāyiṭ-i zamānih)
Effectively and flexibly responding to the complex and changing needs of society (pāsukhgūʾī-yi muʾaththir wa munʿaṭif bih niyāzhā-yi pīchīdih wa mutaghayyir-i jāmiʿih)

These three principles provide an evaluative framework for analyzing the consequences of each of the six drivers and formulating appropriate strategies.
Realizing this vision requires structural actions and transformations. On one hand, reviewing and updating jurisprudential, legal, and financial frameworks to accept innovations (such as the endowment of digital assets) and ensuring the legal security of donors and trustees is essential. On the other hand, redefining the role and function of the Endowment Organization from an executing institution to a guiding, regulatory, and facilitative institution within a participatory ecosystem requires changes in structure, processes, and managerial attitudes.
This transition necessitates:

Strengthening a forward-looking discourse (taqwiyat-i guftumān-i āyandihnigār)
Investing in training specialized human resources familiar with technology and modern management
Establishing transparent informational and accountability systems (sāzmānhā-yi shaffāf-i iṭṭilāʿātī wa pāsukhgūʾī) as unavoidable prerequisites

Finally, by presenting a systematic map of key drivers, this research provides a conceptual and operational framework for strategic dialogues, future scenario-building, and the formulation of informed policies for decision-makers and policymakers in the field of waqf. The future of waqf is a “buildable” future (āyandihʾī «sākhtihshudanī»), and building it depends on collective wisdom, foresight, and a resolve that this research has sought to strengthen its intellectual foundations.
Main limitation of the research: The weakness of the forward-looking discourse in this field, which suggests holding regular foresight sessions with experts as the next step.